Venezuela está en el grupo de países con bajo riesgo de transmisión del coronavirus en América. Sin embargo, las autoridades venezolanas deben prepararse ante la posibilidad de que la infección llegue al país.
The biological determinants of transmission in a possible case are due to three fundamental causes:
- Number of cases in other contexts. Every time the number of cases increases in China and other countries, the probability of them occurring in Venezuela increases.
- Migration mobility. The number of people moving from the primarily affected area to the unaffected area (the average number of passengers between two or more points) is an important variable. Of course, if mobility is drastically affected (border, port, and airport closures), the probability of transmission drops considerably. The most important question is how long these quarantine or social distancing measures can be maintained without a massive social impact. Paradoxically, the capacity for effective social control in strong regimes can mean a better capacity to prevent spread, and perhaps as a contrasting example, it would be useful to try to imagine a quarantine of this kind in New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Vermont, Rhode Island, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Massachusetts (with a total of 55 million people).
- Un repositorio web Epirisk, que es una plataforma computacional diseñada para estimar rápidamente la probabilidad de movilizar individuos infectados desde sitios afectados por un brote de enfermedad a otras áreas del mundo, por vía aérea y medios diarios de transporte. También permite al usuario explorar los efectos de las posibles restricciones aplicadas al tráfico de las líneas aéreas y los flujos de transporte.
If cases double every 48 hours, it can be estimated that by Saturday, February 1, 2020, there will be 18,000 cases in China. Assuming no travel restrictions are implemented, relative and comparative risks between different countries can be estimated. So far, this projection has held true remarkably well.
A continuación las estadísticas del Coronavirus COVID-19 en tiempo real según Johns Hopkins.